Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 28 June 2026, I was on “Switzerland” talking with the host Tom Switzer and Doug Bandow about the tit-for-tat bombing attacks between Iran and the US that took place between 26 June and 28 June 2026. I made the argument that there was little chance that those attacks would escalate and moreover, the US would back away from the exchanges, effectively conceding defeat to Iran.
The issue at hand is whether Iran has full control of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian leaders obviously thinks their country does, but the US thinks otherwise and thus challenged Iran on the issue. That is what the tit-for tax exchanges were all about.
The US, however, could not win that fight, just like it could not win the broader war against Iran, which is why President Trump had little choice but to sign the Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June 2026 — even though it reflected a clear Iranian victory.
It is quite amazing how many Americans can’t comprehend that the US made a catastrophic mistake going to war against Iran on 28 February 2026 and that there is no way to achieve victory. The smart strategy for President Trump is to end the war as quickly as possible.
